Prediction Markets Are Real Enough to Prosecute. Are They Real Enough to Regulate?
The Wall Street Journal spent months studying Polymarket’s social media campaign and found what anyone in the futures industry could have told them. Paid…
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Markets & Trading
Congressional Insider Trading: The Trade Everyone Else Goes to Prison For
Congressional Stock Trading, the Quiet Gutting of the STOCK Act, and What It Costs the Rest of Us R Tamara de Silva There…
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Bias Before Knowledge of History: Wall Street’s War Dividend
Elliott Management, Paul Singer’s $80 billion hedge fund, told its investors this week that the US-Israeli war on Iran is comparable to the Allied…
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Why AI Will Never Replace Traders
The Model Has Never Seen a War Start on a Tuesday Morning By R Tamara de Silva The promise that a quantitative model can…
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Insider Trading on Polymarket: The First Criminal Case, and the Bigger Ones Still Anonymous
For fifteen years, there has been a legal framework in the United States for criminally prosecuting insider trading in commodities and derivatives markets. It…
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Another Hormuz Trade, Another $760 Million Question: The Insider Trading Pattern in Oil Futures
On Friday, someone bet about $760 million that oil prices would fall. Twenty minutes later, Iran’s foreign minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz…
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Is the Oil Market Being Jawboned? The Story the Spot/Futures Spread May Be Trying to Tell
When governments talk, markets move. The question worth asking right now is whether the oil futures market is being deliberately talked down to prop…
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